🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.