Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.